COVID19: A blessing in disguise for European stock markets?

This study aims to bridge the gap that has remained unfilled after the initial scrutiny and reporting of the damaging effects of Covid-19 on financial markets. The study analyzes 10 European stock markets and compares their pre and post covid return dynamics. Our findings are surprisingly pleasant, albeit counterintuitive to some. We observe a quick and unprecedented recovery in the European stock market, yielding significantly higher returns post covid, given a reasonably large holding period. We also observe an alteration and change in the status quo of countries while transmitting or receiving cross-market spillovers.

Impact of Covid-19 on Corporate Solvency and Possible Policy Responses in the EU.

The massive contagion of new coronavirus (Covid-19) has disrupted many businesses across the European Union. This has resulted in an immense drag on the revenues and cash flows that may lead to a significant increase in corporate bankruptcies. In this paper, we investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the solvency profile of the firms in the EU member states. We introduce multiple stress scenarios on the non-financial listed firms and report a progressive increase in the probability of default, an increase of debt payback, and declining coverages. Our results indicate that the solvency profile of all firms deteriorates. The manufacturing, mining, and retail sector are most vulnerable to a decline in market capitalization and a reduction in sales revenues. The paper also examines the possible policy interventions to sustain solvency at a pre Covid-19 level. Our findings suggest that for a moderate deterioration in economic conditions, a tax deferral is sufficient. However, in the event of exacerbating business shocks, there should be hybrid support through debt and equity to avoid a meltdown. This study has important implications for policymakers, corporate managers, and creditors.

Safe haven properties of green, Islamic, and crypto assets and investor's proclivity towards treasury and gold

A search for a safe haven inspired by investors' loss aversion significantly exacerbates in times of turbulence. The same happened during the crisis of Covid-19 when recurring losses forced investors to alter their investment strategies, and the search for alternative investment classes picked momentum. This study evaluates the safe haven properties of Green financial products, Islamic assets, and Cryptocurrencies, which gained prominence in financial markets after the global financial crisis, coupled with the long-acknowledged safe haven assets like Gold, Silver, and Treasuries. We employ a quantile VAR framework to examine the connectedness between the assets' markets during stressed, normal, and euphoric periods. Our results show that both Green and Islamic Bonds only act as a safe haven during the normal market condition;however, US Treasury, cryptocurrencies, and gold emerged as safe-haven assets under bearish or extreme volatility periods. While proclivity towards US Treasury and gold supports the phenomenon of flight-to-safety, we find cryptos have also become investors' preference amid bearish trends finding their way into the list of safe havens for investors.

The impact of COVID-19 on the valuations of non-financial European firms.

This paper assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-financial firms' valuations in the European Union (EU) using a stress testing approach. Notably, the paper investigates the extent to which the COVID-19 may deteriorate non-financial firms' value in the ten EU countries to provide a robust anchor to policymakers in formulating strategic government interventions. We employ a sample of 5342 listed non-financial firms across the selected member states that have consistent analyst coverage from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimate the input sensitivities of free cash flow and residual income models using a random effect panel employed to in-sample data. Second, based on these sensitivities, we compute the model-driven ex-post valuations and compare their robustness with actual price and analyst forecasts for the same period. Finally, we introduce multiple stress scenarios that may emanate from COVID-19, i.e., a decline in expected sales and an increase/decrease in equity cost. Our findings show a significant loss in valuations across all sectors due to a possible reduction in sales and an increase in equity cost. In extreme cases, average firms in some industries may lose up to 60% of their intrinsic value in one year. The results remained consistent regardless of the cash flow or residual income-driven valuation.

The resilience of Islamic equity funds during COVID-19: Evidence from risk adjusted performance, investment styles and volatility timing

This paper analyses the risk-adjusted performance of Islamic and conventional equity funds during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that Islamic equity funds demonstrated differentials in risk-adjusted performance, investment styles, and volatility timing compared to their conventional counterparts. Specifically, the results revealed that Islamic equity funds are more resilient to COVID-19 shock since they outperformed non-Islamic peers during the peak months of the pandemic. The trend continues even when the spread smoothens. These findings confirm the safe-haven properties of Islamic equity funds, which is helpful for investors aiming to hedge pandemic risks. The style analysis reveals investment drift from riskier styles to more prudent options in response to each stage's uncertainties. The results suggest policymakers should further investigate Islamic financial assets and their underlying principles to improve the resilience of economic systems in any future black swan events.

Human capital efficiency, performance, market, and volatility timing of asian equity funds during COVID-19 outbreak

Despite its relevance for financial services, the impact of human capital efficiency on mutual fund performance has remained unexplored. In this paper, we attempt to explore this gap in the context of the outbreak of COVID-19 that provides us a unique opportunity to assess human capital's importance during economic pressures. We employ data on 2044 equity funds across sixteen COVID-19 affected Asian countries to analyze the performance, market, and volatility timing after sorting these funds as per their human capital efficiency. Our results show that funds with better human capital efficiency outperform their counterparts that rank lower on human capital efficiency. The outperformance as measured by adjusted Sharpe and Sortino’s ratios, Jensen’s alpha, stochastic dominance, market, and volatility timing remained consistent for the pre-COVID period as well as through the outbreak during which the impact of human capital efficiency became even more significant. These findings have important strategic implications for mutual funds.

The impact of human capital efficiency on Latin American mutual funds during Covid-19 outbreak.

The mutual funds' returns, inter alia, are dependent on fund managers' performance. This makes human capital efficiency very central for consistent risk-adjusted performance. The persistence in performance becomes more critical during periods of high turbulence, like the one we are experiencing amidst the outbreak of Covid-19. In this research, we attempt to evaluate the performance of equity funds in massively impacted Latin American countries. These equity funds, with 95% of their investment in the infected region, are ranked as per their human capital efficiency using 2019 as the base year. Our findings demonstrate that funds with higher human capital efficiency significantly outperform their counterparts that rank lower on human capital efficiency. These findings remained consistent for the sub-periods that we specify to map the evolution of Covid-19. We conclude that equity funds should enhance their human capital efficiency to endure resilience amid macroeconomic shocks.

Price reaction, volatility timing and funds' performance during Covid-19.

In this paper we assess the price reaction, performance and volatility timing of European investment funds during the outbreak of Covid-19. We analyze the time period between January and June 2020 and demonstrate that while most of the investment funds exhibit stressed performance, social entrepreneurship funds endured resilience. This performance remained robust during the various stages of evolution of this contagion. The social funds also demonstrated volatility timing that was absent for most of their counterparts. We attribute the overall stability of these funds to their niche investments in social enterprises that specialize in providing innovative solutions for social issues.